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Post Info TOPIC: Forcasting


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Forcasting
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I've worked for Kroger for almost ten years now. I've made out orders in the past and edited on the heavy days when forcasts take on a life of there own. My grocery manager and his back up must not be able to edit the forcast or refuse to because they or either lazy or want the extra product. In there defense the store I work at has very high volume. Also when they do there oos walk they simply zero out all holes. With this being said in getting tired of wiping there as. Almost all the stock crew knows how to order thus much as wiping is going on. Also there control freaks. Lol that's funny because our oos are almost always 100 over. I love working for Kroger that's the catch.



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lol.  I love Kroger too!

 

I am lucky, they do not zero out holes during the replenishment scan at my store.  They do cover them with anything they can find.  They do not replenish from backstock on days.  I order my own aisle and zero out stuff that I am 98% certain is not in the building.  I fix it as soon as I see my error.

The day crew ordering too much is because of the truck schedule.  In theory, backstock is to be run everyday.  This is not possible at my store.  Peyton is 4 deliveries a week at my store.  So, extra product needs to be in the store when there is no peyton truck so the backstock can fill it again daily.  We have 6 Grocery deliveries a week.  So, the day without an order, the forecast will be heavy.  But, no one will run the backstock on the off day so I don't see a purpose in it.  I have tried taking products off the order only to have a customer buy everything off the shelf in one shot.  Then, I have to wait 2 days to get it filled again.  So, I do minimum editing.  We run both trucks at night.  Nightcrew orders grocery.  Daycrew orders peyton. 

Function 9 will show you a MDS #.  It means how many days the current BOH will last.  I try to make that number close to 3 by adjusting the minimum.  Be careful adjusting the min on super fast sellers.

My order opens at 11pm.  The stock from the truck we are running gets added at 1201am.  Computer updates at 230am.  Order closes at 3am.  Some changes I make to the order on the RF before 230 get changed back by the computer.  My night manager told me I need to scan every tag to slow the backstock down.  I told him that 30 minutes was not enough time to scan 1000 tags!

I would like to hear how you, Deltagrocery, and LordUboat edit the orders.  I will look at the order to make sure I didn't order 33 pallets of water and look for -BOHs.  I am not confident with how the data is presented in ISO, but would like to hear how other people analyze it.  I think the live stock needs to be uploaded before the order opens.  I have found instances where the ISO screen showed the BOHs from when the order opened, not after the live stock was added.  The order review on the RF will show the live stock added tho.  So, the data on the ISO screen is inaccurate.

 

Ack, instead of ISO, I meant ISP.  I have no idea how to order in ISO but have seen the damage a store manager did when they did.  Sheesh, the truck was 4x normal!!

I look at movement from the week before and when it was last ordered.  I think the forecast uses the sales from the previous week to decide to order.  For instance, we have 12 BOH, alloc 18, case 12.  Last Monday, we sold 10, previous Monday we sold 0, Monday before that we sold 2.  The computer will want to order a case because we sold 10 a week before plus I won't get a delivery the next day.  But, no one is going to run it even if it is on backstock. 

 

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I don't need the money.  I come to Kroger for the fun working environment.

 



-- Edited by Anonymouse1 on Monday 9th of March 2015 04:02:16 PM



-- Edited by Anonymouse1 on Monday 9th of March 2015 08:32:43 PM

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I only ISO on certain occasions. Since I don't know how to get the system to automatically upload it like everyone else. I always have to manually upload it, or someone, or the system will delete it the next day. I don't order by forcast. I don't even look at it because it's never right anyway. I order strictly by looking at the movement history. 3 cases or something sell in 2 days, I know to order 4.



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I review all orders in ISP, in fact I spend most of the time on the computer than out on the aisle ordering. The aisle orders should really just be checking holes/low spots and ordering display items/major movers that don't have historical data on them yet for CAO to pick them up. To get the best orders, there usually needs to be a minimum of 2 people ordering the store in dry grocery for both peyton + grocery. More if your stores are huge.

Basically ISP should be you editing the order DOWN, and shooting the aisle should be editing UP.

With ISP, the BOH is likely outdated, so you can't just look at that to be the determining factor to judge. Always key in any item you think you may want to remove in the RF to get up to date BOH on it. I always key in everything that orders more than 1 case as well, unless it's something like water or dog food. For example, BOH 12 ALLOC 18 MIN 6 may actually have a BOH of < 6 because somebody bought it at a later time. This is just a flaw with their software and how the RF & ISP don't synchronize properly.

I never look at forecast, always look at the 7 + 30 day movement and mentally factor in any unusual spikes. If you regularly sell 2 of an item on a monday, but 2 weeks ago you sold 20 and CAO wants to bring in a case, I'd take that out. Also make sure you're thinking about SWIM items, they aren't supposed to have their historicals affected by markdowns, but a lot of the time they do, and you'll have to manually take them out. Even if you don't remember it being SWIM'd out, you should be able to tell by the history. Usually sell 5 a week, then sell 12 in one day? Probably was marked down.

Order window here is 1:15A-4A. This is not enough time to make a good order for one person, because reviewing both trucks takes a solid 2 hours if you're a speed demon. That would leave you 45 minutes to actually go around order holes/low spots/displays/untagged big movers. That's why it's so important for everyone working an aisle to maintain their balances as best as possible. There's just no time for one person to do it in the order window.

ISO is basically only for tacking on special items outside of the order window, like customer requests, store needs, rock salt for ice storms, etc.

Also about backstock being run everyday, that opinion was once held, now it's been changed to, "It needs to be rolled out everyday and cherry picked for holes/low spots" because at least they admit there isn't time to work all of it.

Different stores are going to act different with different truck schedules, but I know I take off very little on our Friday orders. Because that one has to last Saturday/Sunday/Monday. You can actually look at the percentage of change. I usually end up with around 30-35% change from what CAO wanted. Usually down 15% & up 20%.



-- Edited by DeltaGrocery on Tuesday 10th of March 2015 04:38:36 PM

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It takes me one hour to order in the frozen department. Opens at 5:15AM and closes at 4. I usually start at 6:30.

Honestly, 1hr is just too long.

You got great memory. I can't order from the computer. I need to be able to see whats on the aisle. Some items I recognize right away though because there's always the few CAO loves to try and bring in even if the Movement history has been 0 for consecutive weeks.

Anyway, OP,  also be aware of force outs. They don't always show up in the order history(will be suffixed with "DB"). These aren't gonna be your fault, but it will be your responsibility to get rid of them ASAP. Always slow sellers. . just waiting to go out of date.



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Anonymous wrote:

It takes me one hour to order in the frozen department. Opens at 5:15AM and closes at 4. I usually start at 6:30.

Honestly, 1hr is just too long.

You got great memory. I can't order from the computer. I need to be able to see whats on the aisle. Some items I recognize right away though because there's always the few CAO loves to try and bring in even if the Movement history has been 0 for consecutive weeks.

Anyway, OP,  also be aware of force outs. They don't always show up in the order history(will be suffixed with "DB"). These aren't gonna be your fault, but it will be your responsibility to get rid of them ASAP. Always slow sellers. . just waiting to go out of date.


 Well you don't order from the computer, you take out stuff you don't need from the computer.   Then you walk the aisle to add on.   That's why you only shoot holes and low spots/sale items on the floor.   I always condition as I order, so when I walk the aisle it usually takes me 1.5 hours to do both.   Some bigger(not necessarily volume wise, just space wise) stores are easier to order because they have more shelf space and you don't have to set your minimums to bring in a case to pack it out in order to be safe.   This allows you to not have to check everything and can make things go a lot quicker.    But when you have a department full of 1 row items that minimums are set at 2-4, it becomes a lot more time consuming as CAO might not catch something that is at the minimum or +1, just as well they might order at a few above minimum which would be backstock that you know you don't need.

But when I was commenting above that was for grocery times, not frozen, which obviously takes a lot longer. 



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How do you do an iso? I never heard of that. I know how to do a regular order

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biscuitparty wrote:

How do you do an iso? I never heard of that. I know how to do a regular order


I am not sure.  My day Grocery manager showed me how it is done.  Done with the Telzon.  It is either on first screen with the CAO option after you log into the Telzon or on second screen.  ISO is not to be used to make an order.  The day Grocery manager is allowed to use ISO to order endcap products. It has to be merged with the regular COA order or it messes up the order that was created.  



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CAO -> ISO Ordering

Then you manually upload it in ISP from the dropdown menu after hitting S next to the appropriate order.


Basically it just adds a product onto the next available order without manually creating the order. Mainly used for adding display/special orders outside of the order window. Our store manager may ISO some customer requests or tack on extra holiday items if he feels it necessary.

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DeltaGrocery wrote:

CAO -> ISO Ordering

Then you manually upload it in ISP from the dropdown menu after hitting S next to the appropriate order.


Basically it just adds a product onto the next available order without manually creating the order. Mainly used for adding display/special orders outside of the order window. Our store manager may ISO some customer requests or tack on extra holiday items if he feels it necessary.


 So if i forget to order something and I iso it immediately after the order window closes will it add the items to that order or is it too late?



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I will have to ask my sources.. and get back to you tomorrow.

When the order closes and you are still doing the order, CAO stops letting you order.  Before the stop was added, if you kept ordering after the order closed, the store would get a huge fine.  So, I do not think ISO would let you add anything to the order.

I have heard there is a way to add certain items(call or email warehouse) if you absolutely need them but have never seen it done.  We have so many stores in our district, the store managers can call around until they find what they need and then E40 it from store to store.  Send someone to pick it up.  We have grocery and meat coordinators coming into our store to get things all the time.

Most times it is better to wait until the next order.  If the customer can't get what they want, they will buy something else or wait.  With the Make it Right policy, you can give a discount on the something else.



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biscuitparty wrote:
DeltaGrocery wrote:

CAO -> ISO Ordering

Then you manually upload it in ISP from the dropdown menu after hitting S next to the appropriate order.


Basically it just adds a product onto the next available order without manually creating the order. Mainly used for adding display/special orders outside of the order window. Our store manager may ISO some customer requests or tack on extra holiday items if he feels it necessary.


 So if i forget to order something and I iso it immediately after the order window closes will it add the items to that order or is it too late?


 After the order has closed, there's nothing you can do.   ISO adds it to the next available order.

 

And as anonymouse said, on super important things(ie: 3 day sale items that were not ordered sufficiently) coordinators will sometimes move items around.    We way over ordered on catfish for our 3 day sale, ended up with like 7 extra pallets of it, so we e40'd it out to like 5 different stores.     

Earlier this year distributions got screwed up, instead of a pallet of peanut butter coming from one distributor to the warehouse per store, one came from every distributor and every store ended up receiving around 5 pallets of peanut butter within a week, so our coordinator was out here with her jeep taking peanut butter to all the stores that could actually sell it better than we could lol.



-- Edited by DeltaGrocery on Monday 31st of August 2015 03:45:15 PM

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